SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230358
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB INTO ERN SD...PARTS OF SE ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906...
VALID 230358Z - 230500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906
CONTINUES.
A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 906 IN AREA/TIME MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
...AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY LINGERS NORTH/EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL WAVE NEAR PIERRE...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE
ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FORCING...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...COULD SUPPORT THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE ABERDEEN AREA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z...BEFORE UPDRAFTS WEAKEN IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UNTIL STORMS DIMINISH...DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR NEAR A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET CORE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 09/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
45509979 46049879 46259720 45709676 44809758 43509965
44849964
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