SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231845
WIZ000-MNZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WI INTO S-CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231845Z - 232045Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 1820Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW MOIST CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG A LINE FROM PINE COUNTY MN AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY WI SWWD THROUGH NICOLLET...BROWN...COTTONWOOD AND JACKSON
COUNTIES IN SWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE E OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND APPARENTLY FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
WHICH HAS ARISEN ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF A BAND OF MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NERN BE INTO CNTRL MN. IMMEDIATELY TO THE
E...18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING CAP AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-1000
J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONCERT WITH DYNAMIC
FORCING AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER IS LIKELY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF
AMBIENT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS AND AROUND 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
43669343 43569436 43839479 44939431 46409317 46719278
46749219 46399159 44179280
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment