SWODY1
SPC AC 101452
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHWEST US...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GA COAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH BASE OF WESTERN TROUGH AND INTO AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PLUME OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NORBERT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. THESE
FACTOR WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST AZ AND
MUCH OF NM. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF SUBSTANTIAL
HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FOR A RISK OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND SOME
THREAT OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS
STORMS.
...FL PENINSULA...
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOVING OFF THE
GA COAST BY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND SOUTH
SIDE OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG EAST-COAST
SEABREEZE WHERE GREATEST THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD
MITIGATE THE THREAT OF HAIL. HOWEVER...INCREASED DRYING AT MID
LEVELS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS PW DATA MAY ENHANCE THE
RISK OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN MOST INTENSE CELLS. STG DIURNAL
HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z TBW/MFL RAOBS AND TIME SERIES OF RUC
SOUNDINGS.
..HART/SMITH/EDWARDS.. 10/10/2008
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