SWODY1
SPC AC 070552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
SHARPENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
IN THE PERIOD. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM E TX/LA
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WHICH SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...THUS LIKELY LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS...WITH A BELT OF MODERATE /35 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL SWLYS
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...AMPLE SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN SEE TEXT/5% SEVERE PROBABILITY...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS.
..GOSS.. 10/07/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment