Tuesday, October 28, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290049
SWODY1
SPC AC 290045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER DEEPENING
AS IT TRACKS NWD FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY TRACKING NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A SECONDARY LOW...NOW
TRACKING NWD INTO SRN QUEBEC...BECOMES THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS
STRONG ASCENT SPREADS NWD WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND ISOLD LIGHTNING
IS ALSO A POTENTIAL WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE W/NW OF THE LOW TRACK...NAMELY ACROSS NERN NY AND
VT.

...SRN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -32 C AT 500
MB/ WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE BY 12Z. NWLY FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THESE TWO LAKES COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ATOP
WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
SUFFICIENTLY ACHIEVING CHARGE SEPARATION FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARD 12Z OVER FAR NERN OH/NWRN PA. LOW POTENTIAL AND SHORT
TEMPORAL WINDOW WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM
AREA IN THIS OUTLOOK.

...OREGON...
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SWRN ORE...IS
EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVED INLAND TODAY RESULTED IN A FEW
TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND SWRN ORE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN COINCIDENT
WITH THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18 C AT 500 MB PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...WITH 18Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG ROOTED AT 500 MB WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED...SPORADIC AND/OR LIMITED POTENTIAL AND SHORT TEMPORAL
WINDOW...NO GENERAL TSTM AREA WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 10/29/2008

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