Friday, October 10, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101949
SWODY1
SPC AC 101947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

LATEST SFC DATA DEPICTS TWO WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZES ALONG THE FL
PENINSULA...JUST INLAND ALONG BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS.
THE EAST COAST CONVERGENCE ZONE IN PARTICULAR SHOULD BECOME MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
ALLOWS PARCELS TO FREELY CONVECT. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE
NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THIS ZONE OVER OSCEOLA COUNTY. AS DEEP LAYER
FLOW VEERS INTO THE NW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO AS SWLY TRAJECTORIES DEEPEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE PER
EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SFC DEW POINTS
APPROACH 50F CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD DEEPEN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. WITH LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...CONVECTION MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN AZ.

..DARROW.. 10/10/2008

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