Monday, October 20, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200548
SWODY1
SPC AC 200545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL AMPLIFY BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH STRENGTHENING TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A LOWER LATITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES.

...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...

A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL NM MAY PUSH
SLIGHTLY SWD BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/...DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR
MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL FOSTER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY FROM CNTRL CO SWD INTO CNTRL
NM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...
RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/LONGER-LIVED STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/20/2008

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