SWODY1
SPC AC 260501
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
AND...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS FROM THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A REINFORCING LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK TODAY.
...FLORIDA...
THE LEAD SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE MAY LINGER NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS AND THE KEYS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT..MODELS INDICATE
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITHIN A WEAKLY SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE
REGIME WILL NOT BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
...TEXAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A QUICK
NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS...IT APPEARS THAT...WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS
REGION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING LAYERS WILL BE INHIBITIVE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
...GREAT LAKES...
EARLY PERIOD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING...IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
..KERR/GRAMS.. 10/26/2008
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