Monday, October 27, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270447
SWODY1
SPC AC 270444

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS /150-210 METERS/ ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG...DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TO THE SERN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE LEADING EDGE OF
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH S TX...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FL...AND EWD OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING.

OVER THE GREAT LAKES...COLD LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AND IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES LOCATED ATOP
WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C/KM/ SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THESE TSTMS
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT...AND ALSO OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY IN LEE OF LAKES MICHIGAN TO ERIE/ONTARIO WHERE NW
TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR THESE REGIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z TODAY IN DEEP S
TX /VICINITY RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR THIS
REGION...SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE FRONT
MOVES QUICKLY INTO NRN MEXICO BY 15Z. TSTMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OFF
THE NC/MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD
EWD ATOP THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS.

..PETERS.. 10/27/2008

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