SWODY1
SPC AC 300534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY WITH A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OVER AXIS OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASCENT
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE MID
LEVEL FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 700 MB. EXPECT
COVERAGE OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10%.
...CNTRL CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO CNTRL
AND NRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MEAGER INSTABILITY THROUGH LAYERS SUPPORTIVE
OF CHARGE SEPARATION SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE.
..DIAL.. 10/30/2008
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