Thursday, October 23, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231942
SWODY1
SPC AC 231939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/FL...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT LOCATED ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...A BAND OF RAINFALL IS LOCATED
IN THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE SERN LA... MS...AL AND FL GULF COASTS. IN SPITE OF
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A BOWING LINE
SEGMENT CAN MOVE NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BEFORE 12Z.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2008

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