SWODY1
SPC AC 241247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LAKE MI
AREA BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WITH AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NEWD FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...AROUND THE
BROAD MO/IA CLOSED LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IN THE EXTREME
NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO S
GA TODAY...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
...CENTRAL/N FL TODAY INTO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN PERSISTS THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO
GA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD/INLAND WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS RICHER MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SW
EDGE OF THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE
SW EDGE OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD OVERLAP IN A NARROW ZONE /AS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING OFF THE W COAST AND PANHANDLE OF FL/ THAT WILL
SHIFT NEWD ACROSS FL TODAY...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA/SC TONIGHT.
THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2/ AND RICH MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS.
EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BEGIN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY INVOF THE
FL BIG BEND AND W COAST...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING COASTAL SC/NC BY EARLY SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT
LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ACROSS
THIS AREA.
..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/24/2008
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