SWODY1
SPC AC 130039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM NERN NEB TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO
WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WHILE A PACIFIC
FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER ERN NM. A NARROW AXIS OF
STRONGER HEATING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON JUST E OF PACIFIC FRONT
OVER FAR ERN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE
LOWER 80S AT LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS THERMAL AXIS HAS REMAINED
QUITE NARROW OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER WRN TX. A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION /EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT/ HAS FOCUSED A CLUSTER OF
DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE TX S PLAINS AND NRN PERMIAN BASIN WITHIN
A MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE LESS THAN 1000
J/KG /REF. 00Z MAF/AMA SOUNDINGS/.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-55 KT.
DESPITE AN INCREASE AROUND 850 MB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ...WIND FIELDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGH 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS WEAKENING SHEAR AND THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. STILL...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS TONIGHT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS WHERE SOME HAIL
AND/OR GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
..MEAD.. 10/13/2008
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