SWODY1
SPC AC 270046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2008
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT AS IT DIGS SEWD INTO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS. LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SEWD THROUGH THE SRN/ERN STATES...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE NRN GULF AND INTO
DEEP S TX BY 12Z MONDAY.
...CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COUPLE OF LEAD IMPULSES AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE E/NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE IMPULSES
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-25 TO -30 C AT 500 MB PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ SPREADING
EWD ATOP WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL...AS HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TSTM THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO CENTRAL NY/PA TO UPPER OH VALLEY AS FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME
CHARGE SEPARATION.
...SRN TX HILL COUNTRY/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS LATE
TONIGHT FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY SEWD TO WEBB/LA SALLE COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL WAA INCREASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09-12Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED COVERAGE/POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR THIS REGION.
..PETERS.. 10/27/2008
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