SWODY1
SPC AC 260045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHEAST...
AS THE REMNANTS OF A CENTRAL STATES CLOSED LOW PIVOT NORTH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO QUEBEC...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A NARROW
BAND OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THROUGH
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
LAPSE RATES ARE MINIMIZING CAPE...BUT DRYING ABOVE A DEEP SATURATED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYER WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND MAY MAINTAIN THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND.
BUT...DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-70+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 JET NEAR THE HEAVIER RAIN CORE STILL SEEMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WHERE
CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING NOW UNDERWAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES ARE DIMINISHING FURTHER. HOWEVER...AS MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
DIGGING/INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...FLORIDA...
A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS. BUT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THE KEYS.
..KERR.. 10/26/2008
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