SWODY1
SPC AC 051945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
FAR SERN NM...PARTS OF WRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK...
...SRN PLAINS...
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING THROUGH NM WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A ZONE OF
CONCENTRATED HEIGHT FALLS AND 45-55 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ATTENDANT
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NM INTO WRN TX.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY OVER
MUCH OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PNHDL REGIONS. FARTHER S AND
E...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 F. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19Z SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SHIFTING FROM CNTRL
INTO ERN NM...JUST TO THE W OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. ONGOING
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS WRN TX AS THIS STRONGER FORCING
EVENTUALLY SPREADS EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
DESPITE A NOTABLE VEERING-BACKING PATTERN THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM
AGL ON AMA/LBB/MAF VADS...OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE
THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX.
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2308 AND WW 911.
..MEAD.. 10/05/2008
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