SWODY1
SPC AC 230043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2008
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES..
MODELS INDICATE THAT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BUT...WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING OFF NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...AN EXPANSIVE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AND...THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED
TO A NARROWING WEDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ...AHEAD OF
THE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH
THE OZARK PLATEAU/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY
65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS REACHED THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
AND SABINE VALLEY. AND...ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 23/06-12Z.
COUPLED WITH A GRADUAL BACKING BUT STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PRIOR TO LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION...THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IF ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...BEFORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.
..KERR.. 10/23/2008
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