SWODY1
SPC AC 080048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/NRN MS...
A LEAD MID-LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR LOW
WILL TRANSLATE FROM WRN MS THIS EVENING INTO MIDDLE TN/CNTRL KY
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
IMPULSE OVER NWRN MS. THIS FEATURE WILL MORE-OR-LESS BE MAINTAINED
AS THE UPSTREAM UPR LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/MID-SOUTH
TONIGHT. A WRMFNT EXTENDED SE FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN MS...SCNTRL
AL AT 00Z AND SHOULD REMAIN QSTNRY THROUGH 12Z WHILE A CDFNT
TRANSLATES EWD INTO WRN TN/CNTRL MS LATER TONIGHT.
LWR-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ADVECTED NWD INTO MUCH OF MS AND SWRN
AL TODAY BENEATH MODEST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE LEAD WAVE TO THE NE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FORMING MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APCHG CDFNT/UPR LOW. WSW MID-LVL FLOW
OF 40-45 KTS WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SHEAR FOR AN ISOLD BRIEF
SUPERCELL AND/OR SMALL SCALE BOW WITH PSBL DMGG WIND
GUSTS...PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL/NRN MS. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
SMALL...BUT NON-ZERO FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS EVE ALONG THE
WRMFNT ACROSS NRN MS. HERE...LLVL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF TORNADO WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS WILL BE
NEAR THE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 03Z PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
..RACY.. 10/08/2008
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