SWODY1
SPC AC 061944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF SE KS....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL/NE TX INTO SRN OK....
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...AS ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT WEAK
SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND WEST
OF A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IS PERHAPS POSSIBLE IN A LOCALIZED POCKET OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. BUT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERALL APPEARS MITIGATED
BY A LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MINIMIZING DESTABILIZATION EVEN WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD
EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE PIVOTS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR ABILENE.
BUT...THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WHERE A DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ALREADY EXISTS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT 500 MB
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
..KERR/KIS.. 10/06/2008
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