SWODY1
SPC AC 151934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY...
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CNTRL TX. RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE TX PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MORE LIMITED MODIFIED CP AIR FARTHER NE
OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND
80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SE MO...SRN IL AND IND...BUT VERY WEAK
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. A SWLY LOW AND MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
MO AND THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENEWD EJECTING
BUT DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
KINEMATICS WITH MODERATE SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW FOR A THREAT OF
ISOLATED BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF FRONT. THREAT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
...TX...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM S-N CNTRL TX WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. RICH GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
70S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
VERY WEAK NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.
..DIAL.. 10/15/2008
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