SWODY1
SPC AC 081554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2008
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SE AL...SW GA...FL
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SE AL/SRN GA AREA/SRN SC/N FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
OVER MS...AND THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING AND
BECOMING MORE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAS RETURNED
NWD ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO S CENTRAL AL...S OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT. A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT OVER S GA/N FL.
SCATTERED CELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SE AL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 ALONG THE
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF MAINLY
BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL LIKEWISE BECOME MORE MARGINAL. WEAKENING OF THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR...ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS N FL/S GA.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/08/2008
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