SWODY1
SPC AC 151233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES TONIGHT. THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IL/MO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
OK. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF LA/TX. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
OVER PARTS OF IL/MO/IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION FOR EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP
CONFIGURATIONS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT OF HAIL...AND STRONGLY VEERED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT.
..HART/JEWELL.. 10/15/2008
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