SWODY2
SPC AC 050550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SE THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL AND SW TX.
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...
AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS OK AND MID TO UPPER 60S FARTHER S INTO TX.
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER JET MAX WILL EJECT NEWD ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AWAY FROM MOIST
AXIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK AND KS MONDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN WAKE OF INITIAL MCS
FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO KS DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK.
IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT INTO
N CNTRL TX DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DESPITE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE IN LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EARLY
OR ONGOING CONVECTION. BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS N CNTRL TX ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGH.
LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING MCS AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THIS REGION MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
..DIAL.. 10/05/2008
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