SWODY2
SPC AC 110548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
FORECAST TO MAKE VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESS EXCEPT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS -- AND EVENTUALLY INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. FARTHER
S...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS KS...AND INTO OK/NWRN
TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR UVV IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS REGION THIS PERIOD...WHILE H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY
UNCHANGED -- OR EVEN RISE A BIT -- OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITED AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- BOTH INVOF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/TX OK PANHANDLE REGION AS
WELL AS SWD ACROSS ERN NM/W TX INVOF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS.
ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD -- DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY -- INTENSIFY...AS VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WEAKER SHEAR
SWD INVOF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NM/W TX SUGGEST A LESSER
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARS MORE CERTAIN FARTHER N INVOF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...A DEVELOPING SSELY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 10/11/2008
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