SWODY2
SPC AC 230543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED
INVOF THE MO/KS BORDER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME
TOWARD THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TROUGH ITSELF
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NERN GULF
ALONG THE EWD-MOVING FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN
FL/FAR SERN GA...AND EVENTUALLY TO COASTAL/ERN PORTIONS OF SC BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE EWD TO SRN SC...
MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES --
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE LOWER 300 MB OF THE TROPOSPHERE -- SUGGEST
ANOTHER DAY OF MINIMAL PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY. WHILE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH TIME...THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS SHOULD AGAIN HINDER
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW STRONGER CELLS/CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- PARTICULARLY OVER SERN
PORTIONS OF GA/SC LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT
STILL APPEARS LOW -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2008
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