SWODY2
SPC AC 290525
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL PHASE WITH STRONGER...POLAR BRANCH
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA. MEANWHILE...FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF WEAKER...EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
PUSHING MORE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER
E...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE EAST COAST
SWWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MASS RESPONSE TO CNTRL PLAINS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/OK/N TX THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH EML/STEEP
LAPSE RATE PLUME COINCIDENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THESE
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF CAPPING ACROSS WARM SECTOR.
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CA INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND/OR SPORADIC NATURE OF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN
BOTH OF ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 10/29/2008
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