SWODY2
SPC AC 051636
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...COMPOSED OF POLAR AND LOWER-LATITUDE BRANCHES OF
WESTERLIES...WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION.
DESPITE WEAKENING...THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF KS/OK/TX BY TUESDAY MORNING.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING
WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FROM WRN OR CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO
CNTRL TX. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S...PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 500-1000 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ACTIVE TSTMS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MONDAY FROM CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF KS SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SLY LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
NWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF KS/OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU AS MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROUND
TROUGH BASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS OVER SERN KS AND ERN OK DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDANT ON
THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS.
IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL AXIS OF
UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OWING TO PROXIMITY OF TROUGH AXIS.
NONETHELESS...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FINALLY...OTHER STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER PARTS OF ERN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THOUGH THE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD LATER DATA SUGGEST
GREATER INSTABILITY...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
..MEAD.. 10/05/2008
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