SWODY2
SPC AC 241715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL MID/UPPER JET WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...AS PRIMARY
UPPER LOW OPENS AND ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA...WITH APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE PRIMARY
TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS CONFINED TO ALONG/EAST OF
THIS FRONT.
...CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SCENARIO FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY WITH
NORTHEAST DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG JET ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
OPENING/INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. AIDED BY A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /40-70 KT/...A RELATIVELY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN NC...AND
AROUND 60 F DEWPOINTS DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA/NJ
AREAS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
DAY PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO HINDER AGGRESSIVE SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA VICINITY.
MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO 500 J/KG OR LESS IN
MOST LOCALES...ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD MATERIALIZE
ACROSS EASTERN NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS/STRONGLY FORCED SCENARIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIURNAL
UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH VERY
STRONG/VEERING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND 250-400 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS/LEWPS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. AS SUCH...DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. SURFACE BASED TSTM POTENTIAL/SEVERE RISK
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY/DEEPENING NY-VICINITY SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..GUYER.. 10/24/2008
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