SWODY3
SPC AC 090729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. STRONG
UPPER JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE THEN LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
IS SWD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SURGE THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
SPECTRAL MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE SWD ADVANCE OF THESE SHALLOW
COLD AIR SURGES...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FRONTAL POSITION
BRINGING THE BOUNDARY AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS SWRN KS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER JET WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN A WEAKER
AND MORE SWD DISPLACED CYCLOGENESIS. A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
...ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX...
ELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE NWRN GULF. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADVECTION OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINTS NWWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NORBERT TO SPREAD NEWD. AT
LEAST PARTIAL BREAKS AND FILTERED DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF WRN TX INTO ERN NM. BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD RETURNING
MOIST AXIS WITH 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR. STORMS TO WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND INTENSIFY OVER NM AND SPREAD INTO WRN TX WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS SOUTH OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.
THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 10/09/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment