SWODY3
SPC AC 220651
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW...THE BROADER-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ERN
GULF/SERN CONUS.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT
MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN PRIOR DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
QUITE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT -- OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. WITH AMPLE FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT
FOR LOCALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY APPEARS
JUSTIFIED.
..GOSS.. 10/22/2008
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