SWOD48
SPC AC 040825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 TO 5 (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) - MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND CUTOFF OVER SE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
HOW THE MODELS HANDEL THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF AND LARGE SPREADS EXIST AMONG MREF MEMBERS BY DAY 5.
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE INTRODUCING AN OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.
BEYOND DAY 5....PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 10/04/2008
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