SWOD48
SPC AC 070751
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS 500 MB EVOLUTION ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST
THROUGH DAY 5 WITH GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
RUNS. PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION BY
DAY 4 WITH A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT UNTIL LATER DAY 5 WHEN MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN NWWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 6. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM WRN TX THROUGH KS FROM
LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6. DETAILS REGARDING UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
RELATED SURFACE PATTERN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5 SO PREFER TO
WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING A RISK AREA.
..DIAL.. 10/07/2008
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