Monday, October 20, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200844
SWOD48
SPC AC 200843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MID-RANGE MODELS DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT VARIATION -- BEGINNING DAY 5
/FRI. OCT. 24/ AS DEVIATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW YIELD DRASTIC DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND FARTHER N WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...MAINTAINING A
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE FASTER/MORE
SWD POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE GFS YIELDS CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE ERN GULF/SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINNING DAY 5.

IN ANY CASE...WHILE THE GFS WOULD THUS BE MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 5-6...A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES ANY ISSUANCE OF A THREAT AREA THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/20/2008

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