SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062306
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-070000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...FAR NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062306Z - 070000Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL AR AS A RELATIVELY NARROW
JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE
MAXIMIZED. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN AREAL EXTENT EWD
AND WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
ATTM...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED INVOF I-30 CORRIDOR SW OF LIT ALONG
SERN FRINGE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING N TOWARDS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
INTERCEPTED AN AXIS MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG/.
THIS ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT /PER LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/ HAS SUPPORTED UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION
AT TIMES /REF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN HOT SPRINGS COUNTY AR
AT 2218Z/. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY
PROGRESS NEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED
BY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A DEARTH OF INSTABILITY/. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD AWAY FROM REGION. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TROUGH
EJECTING FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MAY MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GRAMS.. 10/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
35759195 35389118 34759109 33229166 32579225 32399352
32609409 33069437 34499334 35479270
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