SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071624
MSZ000-LAZ000-071900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN LA...SW MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071624Z - 071900Z
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
LIKELY.
A LINE OF STORMS WAS CONSOLIDATING ACROSS CNTRL LA AROUND 16Z. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z LCH SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F YIELDS MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG.
WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...AND THUS THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARM FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT...BUT THE STRONGEST CORES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 10/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
29699307 30479267 31359227 32489174 32979110 32979068
32798991 32348980 31538962 30178982 29739027 29109099
29429142 29549216 29559265
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