Tuesday, October 7, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2314

ACUS11 KWNS 071625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071624
MSZ000-LAZ000-071900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN LA...SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071624Z - 071900Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
LIKELY.

A LINE OF STORMS WAS CONSOLIDATING ACROSS CNTRL LA AROUND 16Z. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z LCH SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F YIELDS MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG.

WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...AND THUS THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARM FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT...BUT THE STRONGEST CORES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29699307 30479267 31359227 32489174 32979110 32979068
32798991 32348980 31538962 30178982 29739027 29109099
29429142 29549216 29559265

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