SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220803
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS AND CNTRL/NRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 921...922...
VALID 220803Z - 220930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
921...922...CONTINUES.
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER NRN OK/KS
THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY 8 MB RISES OVER THE TX/OK PNHDL AND 3 MB
FALLS OVER CNTRL KS. STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO AID IN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS. RECENT TREND FOR RAPIDLY
DECAYING PCPN PATTERN EAST OF KDDC MAY BE A SIGN OF AN INTENSIFYING
REAR INFLOW JETLET INTO THAT PART OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR KHUT
TO EXTREME NRN OK. DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE KICT-KMHK REGION THROUGH 10Z.
FARTHER S...DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO WCNTRL OK AND THE SERN TX
PNHDL SUPPORTS MODEL GUIDANCE IN MAINTAINING A SVR THREAT INTO AT
LEAST THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN OK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST
AMOUNT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SUCH STRONG ASCENT WAS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM
INITIATION WITH SUBSEQUENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING ACTING AS AN ADDITIVE
EFFECT TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE TSTMS REACHING A LINE CENTERED ON KMHK-50 W
KCNU-25 E KPNC-KCSM BY 10Z. BY 12-14Z...THE LINE SHOULD BE SITUATED
FROM WEST OF KANSAS CITY SWWD TO TULSA AND OKLAHOMA CITY.
..RACY.. 10/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 35440014 36279847 38419774 38709741 38799639 38329575
37569581 36299645 35489749 35189853 35099976 35440014
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