MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2343

ACUS11 KWNS 281741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281740
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-282145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/NRN NJ/CNTRL/ERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 281740Z - 282145Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1-2 INCH PER HOUR INITIALLY EXPECTED NEAR
THE POCONOS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOCALIZED RATES OF 3
INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RATES AND AREA
OF COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...SPREADING NWD INTO NERN PA/S AND CNTRL NY...THEN INTO THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN A
LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BGM SEWD THROUGH THE POCONOS.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH P-TYPE HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN...SATURATION
OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN PART DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS...AND DYNAMICALLY INDUCED COOLING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING...AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SOMEWHAT
REFLECTIVE OF THIS WITH CONFLUENCE EVIDENT IN VELOCITY DATA AND A
BANDING FEATURE IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ROUGHLY IN A N-S LINE FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE NJ/PA BORDER. HEAVIEST RATES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN INVOF THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL LOCALLY INCREASE RATES. AS THE LOW
MOVES NWD...HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE NWD AND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN NY.

..HURLBUT.. 10/28/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 40477461 40117523 40597630 41217646 41757679 42417669
42687612 43467538 44507547 44987477 44947377 44517358
43067389 41137423 40477461

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