Saturday, November 1, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010532
SWODY1
SPC AC 010528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN
STATES. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE PROMOTING AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
ONTO THE CA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THERMAL THROUGH ADVECTING OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...NE TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SSEWD THROUGH LA AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM ERN TX THROUGH AR. HOWEVER...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE SWWD
ADVECTION OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
INLAND.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 11/01/2008

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