Sunday, November 2, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020522
SWODY1
SPC AC 020520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SUN NOV 02 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN UT THROUGH WRN CO AND SW WY...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX JUST OFF THE CNTRL
CA COAST LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN WAKE OF INITIAL
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND JUST AHEAD OF
VORT MAX WHERE DRY SLOT AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXIST. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS TO
DEVELOP WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS. STORMS
FORMING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...GREAT LAKES AREA...

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION.


...FL...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH NELY TRAJECTORIES AS WELL AS MARGINAL MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF CAPE INLAND.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IN ADDITION TO ASCENT AND COOLING
ALOFT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 11/02/2008

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