SWODY1
SPC AC 081629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SAT NOV 08 2008
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD
THE SRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AND A BELT OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS CA
TODAY AND NV TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F...DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WITH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IN THE VALLEY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
INITIAL OCCLUDED CYCLONE INVOF NRN LAKE MI LIFTS NNEWD INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND AMPLIFIES. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...REACHING
THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TODAY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A BAND OF ASCENT TODAY
FROM ERN NC NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. POOR WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION /BASED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/. FARTHER
N...COOLING AND MOISTENING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER COULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/08/2008
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