SWODY1
SPC AC 120556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MEAN/LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW LATITUDE PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS
REINFORCED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS LARGE SCALE SCENARIO WILL
PROMOTE A GRADUAL FRONTOLYSIS WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST TODAY.
...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ARKLATEX TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAK
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND
LA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND MUCH OF LA.
STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /1000-1750 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE COAST.
BENEATH RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW /60 KT AT 500 MB/...A
MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL TO
SEVERE LEVELS /MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST TX/
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...ANEMIC
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE REMOTE
AND/OR DEPENDENT UPON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
RETURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...AN INLAND PENETRATION OF THE APPROACHING
COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SEEMS UNLIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND THUS SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 11/12/2008
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