SWODY1
SPC AC 131242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL NRN STREAM JET NOSING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL AID IN AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES TODAY. DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EVENTUALLY BE KICKED
NEWD INTO THE WRN GULF BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OH VLY/LWR GRTLKS REGION.
..SRN TIP OF TX...
REFERENCE MCD 2375. EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER NERN MEXICO WILL
SUSTAIN STRONG STORMS WITHIN FEED OF MODERATE MLCAPE ACROSS THE SRN
TIP OF TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE WEAK...ALTHOUGH DEEP ASCENT AND 45-50 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ALONG WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS PRIOR TO ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INTO
THE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
...NWRN FL COAST INTO COASTAL CAROLINAS...
COASTAL FRONT MADE WWD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MID-LVL
WAVE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/GREAT LAKES GLANCED THE
REGION...WITH SURFACE WAVE EVIDENT NEAR MYR AT 12Z. THIS FRONT MAY
MAKE SOME MOVEMENT INLAND TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE HAMPERED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN FALLING INTO THE EXISTING COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP.
HOWEVER...A SMALL WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE MOVING
INTO THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL PROBABLY COUNTERBALANCE LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED INVOF THE COASTAL FRONT. NONETHELESS ...REGION
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRINGE OF 40-60 KTS OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
COINCIDENT WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING NEAR THE FRONT.
THUS...AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT THIS MORNING AT TLH AND FFC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/13/2008
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