SWODY1
SPC AC 041609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
IMPRESSIVE COLD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS WRN U.S. WITH
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ENTERING HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WRN WY TO SRN NV REACHES NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM CURRENT LOCATION NRN WY
TO SD/NE BY 12Z WED.
40-50KT LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THRU TONIGHT. PRESENCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL EML LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT RELEASE OF SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE EML /TOTAL PW AOA 1 INCH/...AND
STRENGTHENING UVV SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS AFTER POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS 03Z-06Z IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MOST CONCENTRATED FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB NNE INTO SE SD/SW MN...AND
POSSIBLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SD.
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND MLCAPES
FROM 500-750 J/KG...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
..NC OUTER BANKS...
STRONG LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST INVOF
HATTERAS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS SFC LOW EVOLVES
OFFSHORE. WHILE TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR LOW
CENTER...EXPECT THAT ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND ASSOCIATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT...WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/04/2008
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