SWODY1
SPC AC 150552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPR TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE MS RVR VLY WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS ITS APPROACHES THE ATLC SEABOARD BY SATURDAY
EVE. POWERFUL WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WITH H25/H5 WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 160/130 KTS RESPECTIVELY AMIDST
150-180 METER/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS. AT THE SFC...LOW OVER THE MID-OH
VLY AT 12Z WILL OCCLUDE NWD INTO SE CANADA BY NIGHTFALL WHILE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRANSLATES QUICKLY EWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...WRN
ATLC BASIN AND S FL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
...ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD
BY A DYNAMICALLY ENHANCED 50+ KT LLJ ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MID-DAY...SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S IN NEW ENGLAND
TO NEAR 70 DEG F ALONG THE VA/NC/SC CSTS. HEATING WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO PERIODIC CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UPS/CLOUDS...MITIGATING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
ATTM...MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG.
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SE
VA SWWD INTO ERN SC. THESE STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROUGH. BRIEF
EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND/OR LEWPS AND BOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE CST DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH
RISKS FOR DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES.
IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING ASCENT IMPINGE ON
THE BROAD MOISTURE PLUME/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SEGMENTED LINES
OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AS THEY MOVE ENE THROUGH THE MID-ATLC
REGION AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
BOOST BOTH THE DEEP LAYER AND LLVL SHEAR PROFILES FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS WILL FAVOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...PARTICULARLY
WHERE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...PROBABLY OVER THE ERN
CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF ERN VA/MD. SVR THREATS WILL BE MORE
CONDITIONAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO ERN PA...NJ AND DE DUE TO WEAKER
INSTABILITY.
NRN EXTENT OF THE STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO PARTS OF THE LWR HUDSON VLY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE
DAY/EVE. THE LINE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT...WITH SUCH STRONG AMBIENT FLOW IN PLACE AND THE
RISK FOR STRONGER EMBEDDED TSTMS...A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
..RACY/GRAMS.. 11/15/2008
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