Sunday, November 16, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160529
SWODY1
SPC AC 160526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NEW ENG...
130+ KT H5 JETLET WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN NEW ENG 12-18Z SUNDAY
WITH STRONG UPR DIV SUPPORTING THREAT FOR CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS
WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE COLUMN. MODELS ARE
UNDERESTIMATING MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH/MOISTURE...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL EXIST TO PREVENT
CONVECTIVE SVR THREATS. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE BY EARLY AFTN ENDING THE RISK FOR TSTMS.

...CNTRL/LWR GRTLKS REGION...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GRTLKS REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/NIGHT...REINFORCING THE LARGER SCALE UPR TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN LAKE
PLUMES DOWNWIND OF LKS HURON...ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SPORADIC AND ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...BUT
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..RACY.. 11/16/2008

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