SWODY1
SPC AC 100101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ...
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER AZ/NM
TONIGHT. IN CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...EXISTING FORCED LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. WHILE SOME
SHORT-TERM WINDOW FOR HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS REMAINS...LIMITED
BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH THREAT RATHER MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN
NATURE.
...WESTERN OK AND NORTH/NORTHWEST TX...
AS THE SOUTHWEST STATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK. WITH AN INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...AND THE LATE NIGHT
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ELEVATED CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH TX AND
WESTERN OK...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. GIVEN INITIALLY DRY/STABLE LOW
LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
EARLY-STAGE/ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MOISTURE REGIME...LIMITED CAPE
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL/SPORADIC IN NATURE.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH TX
AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 11/10/2008
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