DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 292000
SWODY1
SPC AC 291957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...SE AL AND SW GA...

...GULF COAST STATES...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH WSWLY FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SUBTROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE PLUME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BY THE
RUC OFF THE COAST OF LA. MODEL FORECASTS BETTER DEFINE THIS FEATURE
TONIGHT...MOVING THE IMPULSE ENEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL
AND SRN GA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
IN SCNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ORGANIZE ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER 60S F ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL WITH MID 60S F PRESENT IN THE
FL PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR PROFILES
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WHERE A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS AN 80 TO 90 KT
MID-LEVEL JET BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAKING
ORGANIZED STORMS MORE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP
A PRONOUNCED 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OFF THE COAST OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES INTO
THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE BY 10Z ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCED THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES AS A
SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES IN THE FL PANHANDLE...SE AL AND SW GA LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN
FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z.

..BROYLES.. 11/29/2008

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