Sunday, November 16, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161942
SWODY1
SPC AC 161939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUING MORE EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
MULTIPLE LAKE ENHANCED BANDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE FROM THE LEE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI EWD ACROSS ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WHILE ALMOST NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF
19Z...CONTINUED COOLING AROUND 700 MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY FOR ICE
FORMATION AND RESULTANT CHARGE SEPARATION. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH ANY MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE LAKE BANDS PERSISTING OVER
NAMELY LAKES HURON...ERIE AND ONTARIO. OVERALL THUNDER
PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..MEAD.. 11/16/2008

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