Wednesday, November 26, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270033
SWODY1
SPC AC 270031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE BEEN
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND ISOLATE/BRIEF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BENEATH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02-03Z. THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE...NOW STILL DIGGING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST...FINALLY PIVOTS INLAND...COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/27/2008

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