Sunday, November 16, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161606
SWODY1
SPC AC 161603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING THE
PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES
ATTM...WILL QUICKLY TRACK TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN LAKE PLUMES DOWNWIND OF LKS
HURON...ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 11/16/2008

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